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A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

New Title Intends to Stir Debate

The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.

Debates range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."